Kingairman From United States, joined Aug 2006, 274 posts, RR: 1 Posted (1 month 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2394 times:
I have noticed Via airline pilot central that in the past two weeks regionals have "quit" hiring. Its a shocking thing to see after so many people I know have gotten on with regionals with as little as 250 hours. A Colgan and Republic air group chtqua class that two of my classmates were in during the month of may was cancelled as well. I've noticed many airlines are going to "interviewing only" or "not hiring" status. It seems that with industry at an all time low, they may be bracing for the worst. Which for me, a year from graduating is a bad thing. Guess its time to get ready to use that management degree! Anyhow, any insight to what you think is going on/ what will happen would sure be interesting
LawnDart From United States, joined May 2005, 939 posts, RR: 2 Reply 1, posted (1 month 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2353 times:
Quoting Kingairman (Thread starter): Anyhow, any insight to what you think is going on/ what will happen would sure be interesting
It all comes down to the price of fuel. 50 seat RJs are no longer economical with the cost of fuel as it is...70 seaters barely so.
You've got a year, so if the price of fuel comes down...maybe. Predictions are that it will climb further, and in that case, look for the majors to review their capacity purchase agreements with a fine-toothed comb and watch as hundreds of 50 seaters get parked.
Good thing you have a management degree to fall back on.
Modesto2 From United States, joined Jul 2000, 2249 posts, RR: 10 Reply 2, posted (1 month 4 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 2261 times:
From a pilot perspective, much of this industry is based upon the right time and the right place. Right now probably isn't the best time to enter the regional airline industry as an aspiring pilot, but obviously, the industry climate should definitely change in the next few years. HOW it will change is of course still a mystery, but as you said, be wise and get that management degree! I've flown with many pilots who claim that they don't know what else they could do besides flying - that's a rather scary thought! Don't be one of those pilots, and instead, be prepared with a back-up career plan with other skills and interests. I've only been at the regionals for two years and the industry's instability is quite unnerving. Granted, I was completely aware of the industry's volatility prior to entering it, but it's still shocking to experience the first taste of possible furloughs or mergers. It's a great job in a crazy industry, so do your research and make sure you really want it. Good luck and feel free to message me if you want to continue this discussion.
KingAirMan From United States, joined Aug 2006, 274 posts, RR: 1 Reply 4, posted (1 month 4 weeks ago) and read 1960 times:
Well I just landed a CFI job for the summer so hopefully I can hold on to that throughout the year on breaks etc from school. It appears many local flightschools in the houston area are posting want adds for CFI's although I am begining to think the cost of fuel may put a strain on the weekend flyer. . and aspiring pilots. hopefully I stay busy though!
Doug_Or From United States, joined Mar 2000, 2466 posts, RR: 2 Reply 5, posted (1 month 3 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 1938 times:
Quoting Kingairman (Thread starter): It seems that with industry at an all time low, they may be bracing for the worst. Which for me, a year from graduating is a bad thing
All time low? Until the furloughs start rolling and we see a BIG airline go belly up, thats being rather melodramatic.
JBirdAV8r From United States, joined Jun 2001, 2498 posts, RR: 11 Reply 6, posted (1 month 3 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 1875 times:
Don't forget the corporate world! Network, network, network!!
The regionals were in a feeding frenzy when I took a gamble and went "corporate." I waffled for awhile, but kept an open mind, and now I'm VERY happy I made the decision I did. Flying a Cherokee and a Meridian (while working in the office on "non-flying days") isn't exactly what I pictured myself doing, but I'm having a blast and working for a great company.
Have fun CFIing, and keep an open mind! My "real" job came from one of my students! And for Pete's sake, enjoy being an instructor. Don't just use it as a means to maintain your skills and enhance your resume-have fun with it. Show others your love for aviation and you can't go wrong.
Bottom line--Flying RJ's may be fun (and I have friends who love it), but always keep an open mind. Great things await you, I'm sure!
ADXMatt From United States, joined Jul 2006, 500 posts, RR: 1 Reply 7, posted (1 month 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 1675 times:
In my opinion the regionals are waiting for the merger speculation and the DL/NW piece to come together and see what they're left with.
It will balance out in less then a year. There will be regional pilots leaving for jobs on the big jets overseas and retirements. It won't last too long.
Unless airlines around the world cancel planes on order at both Boeing and Airbus there will be jobs out there. It just may get competative again. The days of having the ink still wet on your multi license may be gone though.
ThePinnacleKid From United States, joined Feb 2005, 287 posts, RR: 2 Reply 8, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 1404 times:
Welcome to the perfect storm for the US Airline Industry..... We have had some major and influential things happen and come together at an almost perfect timing that has frozen the industry cold in its recovery tracks.... we have had:
1) Age 65 pass
2) Record high fuel prices
3) Merger / Consolidation / Liquidation mania
Those things spread their ugly wings at the "majors" and have no very swiftly hit the regionals as well....
1) Age 65 passing has meant that airlines (like WN for example) have had to reverse course and formulate a plan to "rehire" those past 60 and under 65, retain those about to hit the 60 that would have retired, etc.... for instance, Southwest has decided to re-interview preferentially those who wanted to rehire on as new F/O's that had previously retired from the company because of Age 60... that in turn has slowed the hiring process down (along with other factors) and in return less are leaving from the regionals to them which makes less demand for new pilots at the regionals.... (this hasn't been limited to Southwest either...)
2) Record high fuel prices.... goes without saying... aircraft that used to be EXTREMELY profitable (ERJ-145's, CRJ-200's etc.... ) are now almost impossible to make a dime with... (those who doubt their profitability only have to remember post 9/11 with lower demand and lower fuel prices it was the regionals in many cases that were "saving" their majors... AE, and XJet)..... those days are gone and along with it the demand for these types is eroding quickly.... their is also a dramatic shift from the majors in retiring older equipment and dropping their ASM's by fleet reductions in order to make money on the flights they DO operate... people paying more, filling more seats, with less flights... all to offset the fuel "crisis".... it again.. all trickles down
3) DL/NW merger has cut off one of the few majors that were again hiring full on... the speculation on the resultant company and staffing needs of the new company has stopped both NW and DL from continuing their year of hiring.. which in turn has stopped as many regional guys from moving on to the majors... again, slowing the new hire needs of the regionals... In addition, the other Majors have had to quickly refocus their efforts away from their hiring and planning of their own airline operations and plan their course of action in the merger field... UA/CO, UA/US, CO/AA, etc.. all that speculating has ground hiring to a stop while execs from all sides were figuring and are figuring out new game plans... in addition we have had Champion, Aloha, Skybus, ATA all go under putting more pilots back "on the street" creating a mini-surplus to be had at the majors.... In addition at the regional level we have seen Skyway go under as SkyWest took over for Midwest Connect operations, Mesa is dropping quick with the Hawaiian lawsuit and the Freedom Air / Delta scuffle, then you have SkyWest in their pursuit of ExpressJet while ExpressJet struggles to remain solvent and fend of their hedgefund investors looking to turn a quick buck by pulling the company apart, American attempting to sell of American Eagle, Frontier overnight killing the Republic contract... Continental pulling down the Chautauqua RJ flying by returning all CRJ's beginning in the 4Q of this year... Horizon/Alaska deciding to ditch the CRJ-700s for Q400s, all of this is combining at the same time to really grind hiring to a halt....
Just remember, this is the airline industry... and todays doom and gloom will be tomorrows boom times just look back to 91-93 and the period that followed up to late 2000.... this industry is cyclical... just gotta ride the waves...
"That hard landing wasn't the pilots fault, it wasn't the flight attendants fault, it was the asphalt"
FlyASAGuy2005 From United States, joined Sep 2007, 974 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 1225 times:
Kingairman, you not kidding!
This is so weird. I usually check All ATP's pilot jobs page every few weeks; and over the past two years, there has ALWAYS been a number next to the airline (number of pilots hired/projected to be hired) and now, all but Peidmont is not hiring!
I know there are a few more that are hiring besides Piedmont! I know Great Lakes, Mesa, American Eagle (as of recently) Pinnacle, Colgan and Comair (I believe) are still hiring! Its just that the demand is less then the supply at the current moment, so these regionals can afford to be a little more picky then they were a few months ago! Things will re-bound though, and I recently heard a statement that in another year or so, the regionals could be in another big pilot crunch! Hang in there, thats about all you can do in this industry!
Aviateur From United States, joined Apr 2004, 359 posts, RR: 5 Reply 11, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 968 times:
Quoting CBPhoto (Reply 10): Things will re-bound though, and I recently heard a statement that in another year or so, the regionals could be in another big pilot crunch!
This time, I doubt it. There is a fair chance that oil is going to climb right past $200 per barrel, and the industry will undergo a massive realignment and consolidation, and that includes the regional level.
Higherflyer From United States, joined Oct 2006, 69 posts, RR: 0 Reply 12, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 964 times:
Quoting ThePinnacleKid (Reply 8): 3) DL/NW merger has cut off one of the few majors that were again hiring full on... the speculation on the resultant company and staffing needs of the new company has stopped both NW and DL from continuing their year of hiring..
Actually, the merger is not the reason for DL to stop hiring for the moment. The fuel price runup and resulting uncertainty about the economy meant that DL cancelled a number of flights and decided to park a number of mainline aircraft. That is the reason for the hiring freeze. If the merger goes through, there will be hiring to bring the NW staffing levels up the DL requirements. The new aircraft deliveries over the next year will mean that hiring will probably resume in the fall or winter.
F9Animal From United States, joined Dec 2004, 2400 posts, RR: 19 Reply 13, posted (1 month 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 889 times:
Quoting Kingairman (Thread starter): Which for me, a year from graduating is a bad thing. Guess its time to get ready to use that management degree! Anyhow, any insight to what you think is going on/ what will happen would sure be interesting
Thanks
kingairman
Hang tight. Alot can happen in a year. I expect this oil bubble to burst anytime. Once it does, we will see the industry recover. Alot of lessons will be learned from this, and hedging is one of them. The profit takers will all pull out at once, and that price of oil is going to plummet. It just will be a matter of time.
EssentialPowr From United States, joined Sep 2000, 1750 posts, RR: 1 Reply 14, posted (1 month 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 835 times:
Quoting Modesto2 (Reply 2): From a pilot perspective, much of this industry is based upon the right time and the right place
Uhhh.... How long have you been in this industry? One's entire career as a pilot is based upon time and place! You aren't even an airline pilot until you've been through a furlough and a divorce at the same time! Heck, I bet you weren't even flying when 310 was a west bound altitude!
FlyASAGuy2005 From United States, joined Sep 2007, 974 posts, RR: 0 Reply 15, posted (1 month 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 727 times:
Quoting F9Animal (Reply 13): Hang tight. Alot can happen in a year. I expect this oil bubble to burst anytime. Once it does, we will see the industry recover. Alot of lessons will be learned from this, and hedging is one of them. The profit takers will all pull out at once, and that price of oil is going to plummet. It just will be a matter of time.
I know for the Delta folks, the name Michelle Burns still causes head trauma! Sold most/all of the hedges for what $100 mil? Not a smart move in retro-spect.
EssentialPowr From United States, joined Sep 2000, 1750 posts, RR: 1 Reply 16, posted (1 month 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 659 times:
Quoting F9Animal (Reply 13): I expect this oil bubble to burst anytime. Once it does, we will see the industry recover. Alot of lessons will be learned from this, and hedging is one of them. The profit takers will all pull out at once, and that price of oil is going to plummet. It just will be a matter of time.
You are of course aware that current supply for refined hydrocarbons is exceeding demand....
F9Animal From United States, joined Dec 2004, 2400 posts, RR: 19 Reply 17, posted (1 month 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 600 times:
Quoting EssentialPowr (Reply 16): You are of course aware that current supply for refined hydrocarbons is exceeding demand....
And there will be no option soon but to seek other options. The oil issue will burst, and it will happen. There is no excuse for this surge, regardless of what people speculate. This is just greedy jerks taking advantage, and investors cashing in like fat cows.
F9Animal From United States, joined Dec 2004, 2400 posts, RR: 19 Reply 19, posted (1 month 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 549 times:
Quoting EssentialPowr (Reply 18): So instantly the airline industry tranforms to another source of energy??
No, I am saying that once we get the jacka** we have as president out of office, we will see some positive changes in regards to energy prices. If that is what it takes to burst the bubble, then so be it. Prices will reduce demand, and the prices will drop one way or the other. This will pass, it has before. There are plenty of other areas that can be drilled, and that is another option. Trust me, it is going to happen sooner than later.
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From United States, joined Aug 2006, 274 posts, 
And for Pete's sake, enjoy being an instructor. Don't just use it as a means to maintain your skills and enhance your resume-have fun with it. Show others your love for aviation and you can't go wrong.